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Product: ONESOURCE Global Trade

Brazil's foreign trade: 2025 retrospective and 2026 outlook

Date of publication: February 18, 2026

Summary

In 2025, Brazil reinforced its role as a strategic player on the global stage, supported by regulatory transitions (such as the tax reform), modernization of import processes, and digital integration via the Single Foreign Trade Portal (Portal Único) and DUIMP. Reviewing Brazil's foreign trade performance in 2025 and projecting trends for 2026 is essential to consolidate lessons learned, guide decisions, and anticipate risks.

2025 retrospective: Results and milestones

In 2025, Brazil posted a trade surplus of US$ 68.3 billion, supported by strong exports from agribusiness and extractive industries, even amid declining global commodity prices. In parallel, the digitization and modernization of customs procedures increased operational efficiency, reducing import lead times and generating meaningful cost savings.

Regulatory transformation and customs modernization

The simplification and compliance agenda gained traction with the evolution of the Single Foreign Trade Portal (Portal Único) and the consolidation of the path toward DUIMP as an instrument to centralize data and streamline documentation. This progress helped companies operate with greater predictability, traceability, and risk control.

Geopolitical repositioning and market access

Geopolitical shifts encouraged stronger ties with Asian and Middle Eastern markets, offsetting impacts associated with tariffs imposed by the United States. At the same time, progress in negotiating agreements and greater adherence to ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) standards helped sustain export performance.

2026 outlook: What to expect and how to prepare

For 2026, the expectation is for moderate growth in Brazil's foreign trade in an environment of significant changes in tax and customs policies, with technology and compliance becoming even more central.

Economic scenario and key variables

Global trade:
Projected slowdown in global trade growth to 0.5% (estimate attributed to the WTO in the source text).

Brazil:
Expected surplus between US$ 70–90 billion, with exports supported by Asian demand.

Exchange rate and interest rates:
An exchange rate of up to R$ 5.50/US$ tends to increase external competitiveness, while high interest rates (Selic) reinforce the need for financial and logistics planning.

Tax reform: Transition phase (CBS and IBS)

In 2026, the focus is the transition to the dual VAT model (CBS and IBS), with symbolic rates applied for testing. The strategic direction is to reduce cascading taxation, exempt exports, and increase legal certainty—requiring companies to adjust tax master data, processes, system parameter settings, and assessment governance.

Technological evolution and digital maturity (DUIMP, AI and blockchain)

The outlook is for progress toward more complete digital maturity, with increasing (and, per the source text, mandatory) use of DUIMP for import management, centralizing data and reducing bureaucracy. Technologies such as AI and blockchain tend to strengthen document authenticity, risk detection, and information consistency throughout the supply chain.

Operational automation and integration with consenting agencies

Integration with consenting agencies (for example, Anvisa and Mapa) via DUIMP, combined with automation tools, should speed up clearance, and strengthen compliance. In practice, this increases the importance of correct master data (tariff classification, attributes, licenses, certifications, supply chain parties) and well-defined internal workflows.

ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and market access requirements

Sustainability and transparency are increasingly becoming mandatory for access to developed markets. The source text also highlights the trend toward selective taxes on harmful products and the use of tools to monitor environmental compliance, raising the level of evidence and traceability expected from exporters and importers.

International agreements and opportunities

Opening opportunities through treaties (cited in the source text: Mercosur–EU, Mercosur–EFTA and the UAE) expands market potential but increases requirements for technological alignment to support efficient tariff classification, rules of origin, documentation, and audit trails.

Conclusion

The legacy of 2025 was the consolidation of technology and regulatory compliance as pillars of competitiveness in Brazil's foreign trade. In 2026, success will depend on the ability to adapt to the Tax Reform, accelerate digitization (including DUIMP), implement end-to-end automation, and comply with global standards of compliance and ESG—reducing risks and capturing opportunities with greater predictability.

These changes can be supported by solutions such as the ONESOURCE platform (Thomson Reuters), which supports automation, data analytics, compliance, and adaptation to regulatory changes, helping professionals anticipate risks and capture growth opportunities.

To learn more about Thomson Reuters Global Trade solutions, click here.