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January 24, 2018

One year since the inauguration of President Trump

The market impact of tax reform packages: 2017, 2003 & 1986.

LONDON – President Trump’s Tax Reform package was the marquee landmark of his first year in office and the stock markets appear to have reacted positively.

The Thomson Reuters Tax & Accounting team decided to see if the market reaction to President Trump’s tax cuts was exceptional, or in line with the market reaction of two previous tax reform packages; of President George W Bush in 2003 and of President Ronald Reagan in 1985/6 (see graphs here).   

The team compared the growth of the Dow Jones between the introduction of the initial Tax Cut Bill in the House of Representatives, and at the end of the process; the day of the signature of the President.  Over the same periods (introduction to signature) the Dow Jones grew 5% (1237.8 points) for President Trump; 12% (908.13 points) for President George W Bush and 20% (349.44 points) for President Reagan.

Shaun Hunley of Tax & Accounting said: “Markets react to a huge number of factors and all of these tax cut packages were introduced in completely different economic circumstances. It’s interesting to compare how the market has reacted to the tax agendas of three Republican presidents.  It is worth noting though, that that the Reagan and Bush tax packages were mainly focused on personal taxes, rather than corporations, so perhaps it is surprising that the Dow Jones grew by a significantly small percentage for President Trump’s reforms.”

Dow at introduction of Bill
Dow at President’s Signature
Growth %

23516.26

24754.06

0.052636

7884.99

8793.12

0.115172

1459.06

1755.20

0.202966

Thomson Reuters

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