Law firms closed 2025 with sails full and coffers flushed, but a shift in the wind may mean choppier waters ahead
Key takeaways:
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LFFI dip driven by slowing demand — The small dip in the LFFI was driven almost entirely by decelerating demand growth, which slowed to a still-strong 3.3% in Q4.
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Changing of the guard — M&A work slammed on the brakes while counter-cyclical practices surged, with bankruptcy re-emerging as a major engine of demand growth — a shift that often signals broader economic turbulence ahead.
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Rate increases, client pressure builds — Firms fielded strong rates at the beginning of 2025, which helped power profits; however, with client budgets stretched, firms must demonstrate value to justify their higher rates.
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Law firms ended 2025 in an enviable position, even as the Thomson Reuters Institute’s Law Firm Financial Index (LFFI) score dipped 2 points to 61 for the fourth quarter of 2025, snapping a yearlong upward streak as demand growth slowed from its Q3 pace. The final quarter of 2025 delivered one of the strongest finishes in recent memory, with profits surging and margins cresting above 40%. Yet even as the champagne flows, the winds may already have begun to shift.
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Q4 2025 Law Firm Financial Index
The LFFI’s slight decline was driven almost entirely by decelerating demand growth, which slowed to a still strong 3.3% in Q4 from 3.9% in Q3. More telling than this headline figure, however, was a quieter changing of the guard beneath the surface.
Transactional practices began cooling from their Q3 peaks, with M&A work falling 5 percentage points from its prior pace. Filling the void, bankruptcy work surged in Q4, particularly in December, as counter-cyclical practices re-emerged as the dominant engine of demand growth. If this signals a greater shift for the United States economy, as it often does, law firms may find something far more important than just their demand threatened — their rates could come under pressure.
The rate question
Rate increases have historically been the primary power behind law firm finances, and 2025 proved no exception. Firms broke through a two-decade-old threshold, with the average firm seeing 7% growth in worked rates. Since the end of 2022, every 1% increase in worked rate growth has correlated to about a 0.9 percentage point increase in profits.
Where things may become less comfortable is the increasing potential for client pushback. Legal services buyers’ budgets are under more pressure than ever, and 2026’s new rate increases — expected to be as strong or stronger than 2025’s — are already in effect. If the legal industry continues raising rates at this pace without delivering corresponding increases value — and communicating that value to clients — they may see clients shift work to cheaper firms or move more legal work in-house entirely.
We’ve seen this movie before, in 2008 immediately after the global financial crisis, and the result was a stagnant decade of law firm growth.
Preparing for changing weather ahead
The good news is that none of this spell immediate trouble, and there is more than enough time for firms to avoid the worst of the long-term threats. A brighter future, one in which firms use advanced AI tools to deliver more value per hour and thus strengthen their surging rates even further, is just as possible.
By effectively locking in their revenue before the winds shifted and practicing disciplined expense management, law firms have bought themselves some breathing room to invest in technology and talent, at least in the short term.
For law firm leaders, this is a moment for preparation, not for a victory lap. The firms best positioned for whatever weather lies ahead will be those that solidify their efficiency gains and demonstrate value now, ensuring that when the next wind shift comes, they’re positioned not just to survive, but to thrive.
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