November 18, 2014
Thomson Reuters announces new forecast model tool for Brazilian power markets
São Paulo/London – Thomson Reuters, the world´s leading source of intelligent information for business and professionals, today announces the launch of Power Brazil, a new forecast model tool for the energy market in Brazil that includes our Hydro Balance analysis. Based on its in-depth knowledge and extensive experience from global power markets, Thomson Reuters Commodities Research & Forecasts hydrological model expands coverage to all major Brazilian hydro power regions, enabling sector traders to gain greater intelligence and insight into local energy markets.
In addition to the comprehensive hydro analysis, the product offering also provides proprietary electric consumption, wind generation and power outage forecasts for the Brazilian power system. This content and these insights are available on our flagship desktop, Thomson Reuters Eikon, and will be updated throughout the day based on the latest observations and forecasts.
Approximately three-quarters of Brazil’s power production comes from hydro power, which means the price of electricity is particularly sensitive to drought. With the first rains of the season expected in November, Thomson Reuters hydrological models will allow traders in Brazil to better understand and utilize the hydrological situation to their advantage.
“Brazil is a rapidly developing country, with rapidly increasing energy needs,” said Stefan Soderberg, senior hydrologist, Thomson Reuters. “Our new tool provides energy analysts in Brazil with the detailed insight into their domestic energy which would usually be expected in mature markets. In Norway, for instance, where 99 percent of power is hydro-electric, similar tools are resulting in more accurate forecasting and therefore more informed trading decisions, which helps to ensure a smoothly functioning market.”
The Hydro Balance (HB) is an index that describes the total potential for hydro power production in the long and short term. While the measurement of reservoir content only describes the situation next to the power plants, the HB incorporates other natural variables which influence the hydro power system and thus gives traders an increased understanding of what to expect in the long run.
The HB is the sum of reservoirs, soil and groundwater (as well as snow, should it appear) minus the normals (the average daily figure over the preceding 30 years). All are expressed in GWh energy units. All major hydrological parameters are modeled and forecasted across the country using metrics devised for markets rich in hydro-electric power. For instance, the HB can indicate a surplus or deficit of hydro energy in the power system more accurately than the more conventional measure of reservoir levels. The forecast horizon is currently one month; the analysis around soil and groundwater is run up to 52 weeks in advance.
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